Marin Home Sales Rise Sharply in April

Here we are, back again. The market is still hot here in Marin. So what I’ve seen at all those open houses was not an illusion, not an exaggeration. Agents are saying the number of visitors to open houses is up dramatically, hardly leaving them any time to talk to any of the people.

What’s going on, I ask myself? People I meet ask me the same question. My answer is twofold: one the one hand, inventory is still way down and demand is still way up, knocking the sales numbers out of the park, up 21% from the same month last year. On the other hand, is it real? The second half of my answer is: while I do not see this trend across the country, it’s certainly true here in Marin County, San Francisco and the Peninsula, so whether it’s a reflection of a national reality is not the point; at this moment in time it is the reality here. If you are a buyer you have to play by these rules, even if they prove to be wrong at some point in the future. Sounds crazy? Yeah, it does, sort of…

Another real fear driving buyers to the table is the specter of higher interest rates which, defying all prognostications, are still breaking record lows.

Here’s a link to the recent article in the IJ:
 

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MARIN HOME SALES

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Multiple Offer Backlash

The multiple offers just keep on coming.  Strange to be saying that again, but I am.

The lowest price points are on fire, especially in central Marin, where a good home is gone in less than a week.  The wave of multiple offers is extending into higher priced homes as well, embracing the million and occasionally million-plus homes.  Are the homes really too good to pass up? Example: I just had a listing (which is about to go into contract) where I had 7 agents calling saying they were planning to write up offers. What? That’s crazy!

But I see a possible “backlash,” if that’s the right word. There are so many offers gathering around any decent new listing that many of the buyers drop out before even touching pen to paper. I had one buyer ask to write a full-price preemptive offer if we promised to accept it and not have an open house. No, afraid not. The agent said her client had been in four other multiple offer situations and was just plain fed up.  The very next day one of the seven planning to write called back and said the same; too many bidders, too likely to go over asking. They dropped out.

You’ve heard it before…too little inventory…We have just over a 2-month supply; normal is a 5-6 month supply.

So, the backlash: many buyers may just go back on the fence until more inventory appears, but I don’t see that happening unless there is a flood of foreclosures on the market. Fewer active buyers? If that does happen, it might make things a bit more manageable. Buyers have a little more time to choose, Sellers still sell their house, but unfortunately for them, just not with the inflated prices.

The next few months will  be very interesting. My question is: will we see this frenetic market roll right into the summer, when normally you’d see a seasonal cooling in time for vacations and such? That will be an indicator everyone will want to pay attention to.

 

 

 

 


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