Summer 2010 Marin Home Update

The first question you might want to ask is: was this year's hottest “Buying Season” really as hot as we might like? Is the market finally changing? While it is undeniable that we saw a surge in sales this spring, how much of it was due to seasonal change, the government tax credit, or that elusive change in market momentum?

Month by month the newspaper tells an interesting story.

Starting in March, Marin saw a rise in both the number of single-family home sales and the median price. The median price of a single-family home last month was $725,250, up 8.2 percent from the $670,000 median recorded in March 2009. The price marked a steady increase this year: It was up 13.3 percent from the January median of $640,000 and a 4.4 percent rise from February's $694,500. While signs are positive for a recovering housing market, there remains a gap in what sellers want for their properties and what buyers are willing to pay. Many people think those rosy numbers are merely a statistical quirk. The data indicates prices in certain communities have more or less flattened out or risen modestly, while they remain soft in others. While credit has certainly loosened, it's still tight. It's still tough getting the 'jumbo' mortgages and adjustable-rate financing for higher priced areas.

In April, home sales rose sharply again when compared to last year, and the median price followed along. 187 single-family homes were sold last month, up from 130 in April 2009 - a 43.8 percent rise. Single-family home sales last month also were up from 172 in March. The median price of $800,000 for a single-family home in April marked a 7.6 percent rise from $743,500 one year earlier. A lot of this positive movement can finally be attributed to what are hopefully tangible improvements in the high-end market. Sellers may finally be getting more realistic, and buyers are responding.

May was another month with a gradual climb in prices and sales, but only when compared to last year, not last month. Remember, the statistics are of two kinds: a year-to-year comparison and a month-to-month comparison. While the numbers look great when compared to last year, we can't forget where we've came from. Last year was so far down, anything other than a second financial meltdown in 2010 would register as positive. The median price of a Marin single-family home in May was $792,500, up 11.3 percent from the $712,000 of May 2009. However, if we compare the numbers to April, the median price edged down a fractional 1.0 percent.

What knowledge can we take away from all these numbers? It seems pretty clear: we've come a long way from last year, which should make us all feel better, but the increase we've seen so far this year might be faltering if May is an indication of what's to come in June. From what I'm seeing, I think the slow, stagnating trend will continue throughout the summer, due in part three factors: seasonal summer slowdown, the end of the purchaser's tax credit, but most importantly the fact that the economy is still in such dismal shape. Without a change in the jobs market, there's only so high the market can go.

Is there a silver lining? Possibly, both for buyers and sellers. Fewer new listings, buyers away on vacation. A good, well-priced listing with less competition will attract attention and get sold quickly. That’s good for the Seller. For the Buyer, not so much competition; wait for the right house and grab it. So if you happen to know anyone contemplating either a buy or a sell, give them my number and I’d be happy to explain while the summer months don’t have to a time when you sit on the sidelines.

Eduardo Gutekunst is a Marin County Real Estate agent and works for Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the top Real Estate Company in the area and a county fixture for nearly 100 years. Eduardo is about as native to Marin County as one can be, having first moved to the county from San Francisco when he was two years old. He has lived in Marin County all his life, and is familiar with its history and its communities ever since he was a child here in the 50’s. There’s hardly a nook or a cranny he isn’t familiar with, and he has walked or biked through most of its parks and open land. If you’re looking to buy or sell real estate, or you’d like to find out just about anything about Marin, give Eduardo a call. He’s available any day of the week. Try him at Frank Howard Allen’s San Rafael office, 415-258-4115, or give him a ring on his cell phone 415-939-2308.



Home About Marin Home Search Buyers Sellers Mortage Calculator County Information Community Services Schools Map of Marin Testimonials About Eduardo Contact Me	Summer 2010 Marin Home Update The first question you might want to ask is: was this year's hottest “Buying Season” really as hot as we might like? Is the market finally changing? While it is undeniable that we saw a surge in sales this spring, how much of it was due to seasonal change, the government tax credit, or that elusive change in market momentum? Month by month the newspaper tells an interesting story. Starting in March, Marin saw a rise in both the number of single-family home sales and the median price. The median price of a single-family home last month was $725,250, up 8.2 percent from the $670,000 median recorded in March 2009. The price marked a steady increase this year: It was up 13.3 percent from the January median of $640,000 and a 4.4 percent rise from February's $694,500. While signs are positive for a recovering housing market, there remains a gap in what sellers want for their properties and what buyers are willing to pay. Many people think those rosy numbers are merely a statistical quirk. The data indicates prices in certain communities have more or less flattened out or risen modestly, while they remain soft in others. While credit has certainly loosened, it's still tight. It's still tough getting the 'jumbo' mortgages and adjustable-rate financing for higher priced areas. In April, home sales rose sharply again when compared to last year, and the median price followed along. 187 single-family homes were sold last month, up from 130 in April 2009 - a 43.8 percent rise. Single-family home sales last month also were up from 172 in March. The median price of $800,000 for a single-family home in April marked a 7.6 percent rise from $743,500 one year earlier. A lot of this positive movement can finally be attributed to what are hopefully tangible improvements in the high-end market. Sellers may finally be getting more realistic, and buyers are responding. May was another month with a gradual climb in prices and sales, but only when compared to last year, not last month. Remember, the statistics are of two kinds: a year-to-year comparison and a month-to-month comparison. While the numbers look great when compared to last year, we can't forget where we've came from. Last year was so far down, anything other than a second financial meltdown in 2010 would register as positive. The median price of a Marin single-family home in May was $792,500, up 11.3 percent from the $712,000 of May 2009. However, if we compare the numbers to April, the median price edged down a fractional 1.0 percent. What knowledge can we take away from all these numbers? It seems pretty clear: we've come a long way from last year, which should make us all feel better, but the increase we've seen so far this year might be faltering if May is an indication of what's to come in June. From what I'm seeing, I think the slow, stagnating trend will continue throughout the summer, due in part three factors: seasonal summer slowdown, the end of the purchaser's tax credit, but most importantly the fact that the economy is still in such dismal shape. Without a change in the jobs market, there's only so high the market can go. Is there a silver lining? Possibly, both for buyers and sellers. Fewer new listings, buyers away on vacation. A good, well-priced listing with less competition will attract attention and get sold quickly. That’s good for the Seller. For the Buyer, not so much competition; wait for the right house and grab it. So if you happen to know anyone contemplating either a buy or a sell, give them my number and I’d be happy to explain while the summer months don’t have to a time when you sit on the sidelines. Eduardo Gutekunst is a Marin County Real Estate agent and works for Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the top Real Estate Company in the area and a county fixture for nearly 100 years. Eduardo is about as native to Marin County as one can be, having first moved to the county from San Francisco when he was two years old. He has lived in Marin County all his life, and is familiar with its history and its communities ever since he was a child here in the 50’s. There’s hardly a nook or a cranny he isn’t familiar with, and he has walked or biked through most of its parks and open land. If you’re looking to buy or sell real estate, or you’d like to find out just about anything about Marin, give Eduardo a call. He’s available any day of the week. Try him at Frank Howard Allen’s San Rafael office, 415-258-4115, or give him a ring on his cell phone 415-939-2308.